Connected TV – Marketing Mix Modeling

Using Data Science to Analyze the True Effect of Connected TV Campaigns

Connected TV (CTV) is gaining traction as a key channel for brand and performance marketing – yet its true impact often remains unclear. Marketing mix modeling (MMM) offers a privacy-safe, data-driven way to measure CTV effectiveness across the funnel. This page outlines how to turn CTV insights into strategic value.

Core Concepts of Marketing-Mix-Modeling

ROI Analysis

This is a core component of Marketing Mix Modeling, providing a data-driven approach to measuring CTV's true contribution to business outcomes. Since CTV often serves as an upper-funnel, brand-building channel, its full value is rarely captured by standard last-click attribution models. A robust MMM isolates CTV's unique impact on both online and offline conversions, going beyond simple performance metrics to demonstrate its true return on investment and guide budget allocation.

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Saturation

Understanding the saturation effect is pivotal in maximizing the efficiency of marketing investments. This effect reveals the point at which additional spending on a particular marketing channel yields diminishing returns on conversions. Digitl's MMM models analyze saturation effects, identifying channels where budget increases are likely to generate less incremental impact. Conversely, channels exhibiting a linear relationship between spend and conversions indicate potential opportunities for further investment. By identifying these patterns, businesses can strategically allocate budgets, reallocating resources from saturated channels to those with greater growth potential, thus maximizing overall ROI.

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Carry-Over Effect

The brand impact of an engaging, high-quality CTV ad is not fleeting. The 'carry-over effect,' also known as adstock, quantifies this lingering influence. A Marketing Mix Model measures how a CTV campaign continues to affect consumer brand recall and purchasing decisions for weeks or even months after the initial ad exposure, a crucial insight for a channel focused on building long-term brand equity.

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Isolating CTV from Linear TV

A common challenge for advertisers is distinguishing the impact of a new CTV campaign from their existing linear TV spend. A well-constructed MMM can solve this by using different data inputs for each – such as programmatic spend from Display & Video 360 (DV360) for CTV versus traditional ratings data for linear. This allows the model to separately quantify the ROI of each video channel, providing clear evidence for the incremental value of shifting budgets from linear to connected television.

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Seasonality & Trends

Consumer behavior is heavily influenced by the holidays, seasonality, and broader market trends, which also impacts CTV viewership patterns. MMM accounts for these external variables, providing a clear understanding of campaign performance that is independent of these cyclical effects, leading to more accurate conclusions about media effectiveness.This ensures a more precise understanding of marketing effectiveness by distinguishing between the impact of marketing efforts and natural fluctuations in demand.

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Cloud Platform

A robust and scalable technical infrastructure is crucial for efficient MMM execution. Digitl leverages Google Cloud to establish a secure and automated environment for data ingestion, storage, machine learning, and visualization. This infrastructure includes components like BigQuery for data warehousing, Vertex AI for model development and deployment, and Looker for interactive dashboards and reporting. Automation and orchestration tools ensure seamless data flow and efficient model updates, keeping insights fresh and actionable.

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Meridian Partner

Digitl is a certified company for various products and services from Google. This covers tools of the Google Marketing Platform and Google Cloud. The certification ensures high quality, know-how and a close collaboration with Google to get information about features, trends, bugs, betas and more.

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